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Sunday, October 28, 2012

Facts on Iranian Sanctions


Since 2003 the international community pressured Iran via the UN and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to halt its uranium enrichment related and reprocessing activities. Serious European Union (EU) efforts were made in 2005 when Iran wanted Israel “to be wiped off the map”. The Bush administration started sanctions and the Obama administration escalated and intensified them. The New York Times reported June 30, 2012 that Iran conceded that its oil exports were down 20 to 30% and its currency had plunged more than 40% against the dollar since last year. Obama and his European allies placed a round of penalties effective July 1 that some said represent one of the boldest uses of oil sanctions as a tool of coercion since the US cut off oil exports to Japan in 1940. In addition to these measures Obama has tried open appeals to the Iranian people and private letters to the supreme leader; he accelerated a cyber attack to exploit vulnerabilities in Iran’s nuclear program. R. Nicholas Burns, who helped design the Bush administration’s sanctions strategy said the new sanctions “are the toughest sanctions imposed to date. We should give them a few months to have the kind of impact for which they are designed — to force Iran to negotiate more seriously.” The administration was successful in managing to cut purchases from Iran without raising oil prices, a feat many doubted would be possible; it helped that suppliers including Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iraq have increased their production and there was weakening global demand. Since January, Washington has engaged in an intense diplomatic campaign to get big purchasers of Iranian oil including India, South Korea, China and Japan to reduce their volume of imports so they do not find themselves facing sanctions. Many countries grumbled but complied particularly after Saudi Arabia and other countries made it clear they could replace the lost supply; the biggest holdout was China and Washington granted China and Singapore waivers, avoiding what could have been a tense standoff as the administration faced penalizing its biggest sovereign creditor. The Chinese, for their part, did not want to appear to be bending to American pressure. This past spring there was hope for an agreement when Iran met with the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany but subsequent rounds of talks have gone nowhere. Reuters on October 17 reported according to the International Monetary Fund Iran had foreign reserves of $106 billion at the end of last year; some analysts estimate they may have dropped by several tens of billions of dollars as the sanctions cut Iran's oil income. On October 25 the Tehran Mehr News Agency reported the Iranian currency had lost nearly 40% of its value against the dollar this month.
The President was correct in saying Iran’s currency had plunged 80% (40% by June & 40% in October). The fact that Obama is right more than wrong and Romney is wrong more than right is not swaying American voters. 

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